Ember

Ember is an innovative public AI prediction engine designed to enhance the reliability and transparency of predictive analytics. Built on the principle that trust in AI should stem from demonstrable reasoning, Ember utilizes three distinct AI models—Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, and Gemini by Google—to independently analyze live Polymarket markets every day at 7 AM EST. This independent analysis allows each model to provide unique probability assessments without bias or collaboration. When these models diverge from the crowd consensus by 10 points or more, it signals a high-conviction opportunity, which is then timestamped and logged in real-time. The system is dedicated to maintaining a transparent record of predictions over a full year, ensuring that every wrong call is followed by a thorough post-mortem analysis. Ember serves investors, analysts, and enthusiasts alike, aiming to become the definitive proof layer for those looking to make informed bets based on AI-driven insights.

Independent AI Models

Ember operates using three independent AI models: Claude, Grok, and Gemini. Each model assesses market probabilities without consulting one another, fostering genuine diversity in predictions and enabling users to benefit from their varying insights.

High-Conviction Signals

When the predictions from Ember's models diverge from the real-money crowd by 10 points or more, these discrepancies are highlighted as high-conviction signals. This feature helps users identify potentially lucrative betting opportunities that may not align with popular sentiment.

Transparent Record Keeping

Every prediction made by Ember is timestamped and locked before the outcome is known, ensuring that no edits or deletions occur post-factum. This commitment to transparency builds user trust and provides a reliable historical record of predictions over a full year.

Real-time Data Synthesis

Ember synthesizes information from multiple sources, including prediction markets, bookmaker lines, and AI research. This extensive data collection occurs daily before each call, ensuring predictions are informed by the most current and relevant information available.

Informed Betting Decisions

Bettors can leverage Ember's high-conviction signals to make informed decisions in prediction markets. By understanding when AI models diverge from the crowd, users can capitalize on potential mispricings.

Market Analysis for Investors

Investors looking to gain insights into emerging trends can utilize Ember's predictions. By analyzing the divergence between AI models and the crowd, investors can identify market inefficiencies and make strategic moves.

Research and Development

Researchers in the AI and betting fields can utilize Ember's transparent prediction record for academic and practical analysis. The detailed post-mortem of predictions provides valuable insights into model performance and market behavior.

Competitive Edge in AI

Businesses and developers in the AI industry can use Ember's model outputs to benchmark their own AI systems. By comparing performance with established models, they can enhance their algorithms and strategies.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, a calibration metric that rewards both accuracy and confidence. This method enables a reliable assessment of how well each model performs over time.

What happens if all three models agree?

When all three models agree on a prediction, it is noted but does not trigger a high-conviction signal. Divergence is the key indicator for potential opportunities, as it highlights differing opinions among the models.

Who can benefit from using Ember?

Ember is designed for a diverse audience, including bettors, investors, researchers, and AI enthusiasts. Anyone looking to make data-driven decisions in prediction markets can find value in Ember's unique insights.

How often does Ember update its predictions?

Ember updates its predictions daily at 7 AM EST, synthesizing data from various sources to provide up-to-date calls. Users receive high-conviction signals and insights before they are made public, giving them a timing advantage.